Video: 57% of S&P Breakouts Were Fake — This Free Indicator Measures It

A two-minute walkthrough of Consolidation Ranges & Breakout Map — the free
TradingView overlay that marks tight consolidation ranges as they form on
confirmed bars, then labels what happens when price leaves them: breakout,
one-times-range projection hit, or a false break back inside. Animated
schematics explain the mechanics; every number shown comes from the live
base-rates panel on the recorded charts.

Chapters

  • 0:00 — 57% vs 40%: what these charts measured
  • 0:20 — What the indicator marks (animated schematic)
  • 0:40 — How a range is built: the compression score
  • 0:58 — Breakout, false break, 1× projection
  • 1:16 — Base rates panel: four markets side by side
  • 1:53 — Where to get it

Key takeaways

  • A range is only drawn when inefficiency, volatility contraction and
    containment line up into a single compression score; when the score clears
    the lock threshold, the box is fixed — on confirmed bars, nothing repaints.
  • Once a box is set, the tool tracks three outcomes and labels each as it
    confirms: a breakout that follows through, a hit of the one-times-range
    projection (the box height mirrored above the break), or a false break
    that closes back inside.
  • The base-rates panel keeps a running count on the loaded history of the
    chart in front of you. On the recorded charts: EURUSD 1h printed 48/44/40%
    over 135 ranges, BTCUSD 1h 48/49/43% (n=190), XAUUSD 4h 49/44/42% (n=170) —
    and SPX500USD 1h showed a 57% false-break rate (n=81), genuinely different
    from FX under the same rule.
  • These are descriptive counts, not a forecast — another symbol or timeframe
    will produce its own numbers, which is the point: measure your market
    instead of guessing.

Get the indicator (free):
Consolidation Ranges & Breakout Map on TradingView

Get the indicator — and the full guide

The full written guide — every setting explained, alert setup and worked chart examples — is free with an MQLSoftware account.

Analytical charting tools only. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a trading signal service, or a promise of results. All percentages are observed frequencies from specific charts and periods; they describe the past, not the future. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
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