Video: 57% of S&P Breakouts Were Fake — This Free Indicator Measures It

A two-minute walkthrough of Consolidation Ranges & Breakout Map — the free
TradingView overlay that marks tight consolidation ranges as they form on
confirmed bars, then labels what happens when price leaves them: breakout,
one-times-range projection hit, or a false break back inside. Animated
schematics explain the mechanics; every number shown comes from the live
base-rates panel on the recorded charts.

Chapters

  • 0:00 — 57% vs 40%: what these charts measured
  • 0:20 — What the indicator marks (animated schematic)
  • 0:40 — How a range is built: the compression score
  • 0:58 — Breakout, false break, 1× projection
  • 1:16 — Base rates panel: four markets side by side
  • 1:53 — Where to get it

Key takeaways

  • A range is only drawn when inefficiency, volatility contraction and
    containment line up into a single compression score; when the score clears
    the lock threshold, the box is fixed — on confirmed bars, nothing repaints.
  • Once a box is set, the tool tracks three outcomes and labels each as it
    confirms: a breakout that follows through, a hit of the one-times-range
    projection (the box height mirrored above the break), or a false break
    that closes back inside.
  • The base-rates panel keeps a running count on the loaded history of the
    chart in front of you. On the recorded charts: EURUSD 1h printed 48/44/40%
    over 135 ranges, BTCUSD 1h 48/49/43% (n=190), XAUUSD 4h 49/44/42% (n=170) —
    and SPX500USD 1h showed a 57% false-break rate (n=81), genuinely different
    from FX under the same rule.
  • These are descriptive counts, not a forecast — another symbol or timeframe
    will produce its own numbers, which is the point: measure your market
    instead of guessing.

Get the indicator (free):
Consolidation Ranges & Breakout Map on TradingView

Explore the tools and setup guides

The guides are available here without registration. Visit the indicator catalogue for platform availability and free MetaTrader downloads.

Analytical charting tools only. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a trading signal service, or a promise of results. All percentages are observed frequencies from specific charts and periods; they describe the past, not the future. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
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